Shut down defeat...Wounded Trump...○ Defending trade negotiations with China

Although U.S. President Donald Trump failed to reach an agreement on a "national border wall" with the Democratic Party, analysts say that the possibility of a trade agreement between the U.S. and China has increased.



The shutdown has hurt 동양야동

President Trump's reputation as a negotiator, and it is expected that the Trump administration will try to make up for it by signing a trade agreement with the U.S. Some analysts say that it is hard to let go of the situation where large U.S. manufacturers are suffering from deteriorating performance from China at a time when the U.S. economy has suffered huge losses due to the shutdown.



The U.S. and China will begin high-level trade talks in Washington on Thursday (local time). This is the first time for U.S. Trade Representative Robert Wright, the U.S. Trade Representative, to meet with Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He.



At the time of the December negotiations, the two sides agreed to hold a 90-day trade talks. Currently, the deadline for negotiations with the U.S. and China is about a month away. If the agreement is not reached by March 1, the United States will raise the tariff rate on Chinese imports worth $200 billion, and China will impose similar retaliatory tariffs.



Foreign media described President Trump as facing a more difficult battle than the "shutdown battle" ahead of the U.S.-China trade negotiations. The New York Times reported on Wednesday that President Trump should focus more on "ignificant" negotiations starting this week, adding that the U.S.-China trade deal will prove to be more difficult for the Democratic Party to obtain a border wall budget.



Experts are optimistic about the possibility of a U.S.-China trade agreement. The biggest reason is that President Trump is under pressure to conclude the negotiations due to political and economic reasons, which have narrowed his political standing since the shutdown for 35 days. In particular, it is a big burden to President Trump that the series of events triggered by the Trump administration, including the shutdown and the U.S.-China trade dispute, have dealt a greater blow than expected.



The U.S. Congressional Budget Office announced on Friday that the five-week suspension of federal affairs cost the U.S. 11 billion U.S. dollars in economic losses. U.S. GDP fell by an estimated $3 billion and $8 billion in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, respectively. "We expected the economy to rebound in the future with the resumption of delayed federal spending, but the loss of $3 billion will not be recoverable," the Congressional Budget Office said.



U.S. manufacturers have been showing poor earnings forecasts due to the "China shock." On the same day, Catcher predicted that sales of heavy equipment will decrease due to China's slowing economy and rising mineral prices, and that its performance in 2019 will fall short of expectations. Semiconductor manufacturer NVIDIA also lowered its fourth quarter performance due to slowing demand for game chips in China.



"With the economic impact of the shutdown and President Trump's desire to win as much in trade, the U.S. negotiators will try to approach the negotiations in any way and reach an agreement in any way," said Eswar Prasad, head of China's International Monetary Fund.